ARMA Model-Based Prediction of the Number of Vessels Navigating the Istanbul Strait Unassisted by Maritime Pilots

نویسندگان

چکیده

The Istanbul Strait is one of the busiest and riskiest trade routes, with annual traffic 50,000 ships. Such high density managed by enforcement a passage regimen Vessel Traffic Service (VTS) maritime pilots Directorate General Coastal Safety Republic Turkey. VTS operations pilot actions are assumed to complement each other. Accordingly, vessel unaccompanied expected interact greater extent than assisted pilot. Thus, estimating number ships that pass through Strait, especially those do not use assistance, will be an effective tool for scheme management, as it allow authorities balance integrate operations. predictive model based on Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) described in this paper has been developed estimate navigate without assistance. best ARMA was identified historical data 100-150 meter 150-200-meter-long passed 2012-2019. obtained also validated comparison real estimated data.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Transactions on maritime science

سال: 2021

ISSN: ['1848-3313', '1848-3305']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.7225/toms.v10.n01.001